Guoxuan High-tech (002074): Overseas cooperation speeds up in the next city

Guoxuan High-tech (002074): Overseas cooperation speeds up in the next city

Event: Recently, the company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Hefei Guoxuan and India’s Tata AutoComp have completed the “Joint Venture Agreement”. The two parties plan to jointly invest in India to establish a joint venture company, mainly engaged in battery module, battery management system and other businesses.

Among them, Hefei Guoxuan invested 40 million Indian rupees (about 393 yuan) in cash.

760,000 yuan), will hold 40% equity.

This joint venture and cooperation will definitely provide important strategic opportunities for the company’s international market development and sustainable development.

Overseas support continues to make progress in the next city: domestic support, the company currently has JAC, BAIC New Energy, Zotye, Yutong Bus, SAIC, Zhongtong Bus, Ankai Bus and many other strategic cooperation customers.
In terms of overseas support, the company signed a procurement framework agreement with BOSCH, which will 西安耍耍网 provide automotive 12V lithium iron phosphate start-stop batteries for end users or throughout the world.

With this cooperation with Tata of India, the company’s gradual progress is further accelerated. The company is expected to transform into the resource force of Tata Group in the future and penetrate into the Indian market with promising new energy vehicles. If the cooperation is successfully implemented, it will significantly increase the company’s performance.

In fact, the company’s other overseas ternary battery projects are also actively promoted, and it is expected to achieve a breakthrough in 19Q3.

Full orders and full production and sales, 19 years is expected to grow to 10GWh: In 2019, the company’s supply models are expected to focus on the range of 300-400km, the product energy density is mainly concentrated 四川耍耍网 on 140-160Wh / kg.

According to GGII data, the company’s expansion volume reached zero in the first quarter.

6GWh, the installed capacity reached 0 in April.

28GWh, ranked third.

According to the company announcement, the company has negotiated supply strategies with long-term cooperative customers such as BAIC, JAC, Chery, and Zotye. The current orders are full, and the order is expected to be above 12GWh. The expected increase is expected to reach 10GWh (three yuan is expected to be around 1GWh).Expected results are expected.

Perfect industrial chain layout and smooth expansion of production capacity: The company actively lays out upstream resources, establishes a joint venture with MCC in Caofeidian, Tangshan, and establishes a stable supply relationship of cobalt and nickel raw materials. The company and Shanghai Electric jointly establish a company based on power lithium battery energy storage businessTo further expand the scope of business.

In 2018, the “Industrialization Project of 4GWh High Specific Energy Lithium Battery Industrialization Project” and “Nanjing Guoxuan Annual Production of 300 million Ah High Specific Energy Power Lithium Battery Industrialization Project” and other projects have been partially put into production in batches, and the production capacity was quickly obtainedfreed.

According to GGII data, the company’s capacity scale at the end of 2018 is 7-8GWh, and the effective capacity is expected to reach 14GWh in 2019, including 2GWh ternary capacity and 12GWh iron and lithium capacity.

Long-term planning is expected to reach 30GWh capacity by the end of 2020 and 50GWh capacity by 2022.

Investment advice: We expect the company’s revenue growth from 2019 to 2021 to be 127.

47%, 22.

89%, 28.

85%, net profit growth rate was 74.

47%, 24.

40%, 27.


Maintain the company’s buy-A investment rating, with a 6-month target price of 20.

00 yuan.

Risk warning: intensified product competition, new energy vehicle development is less than expected, and overseas cooperation progress is lower than expected

Joyson Electronics (600699): Leading intelligent driving to protect safe travel

Joyson Electronics (600699): Leading intelligent driving to protect safe travel

Powerful merger and acquisition gene assisted, Joyson went to the global parts giant. Both the internal and external decorative functional parts started. It directly merged and acquired the global parts breakdown of Purui, IMA, Quin, KSS, TS, Takada, and the revenue scale from 20101.

5 million to 561 in 2018.

800 million.

The company has formed four major business segments: active and passive safety, intelligent cockpit, BMS, interior and exterior decoration functions, high-quality track for card slots, and building a strong moat to participate in future competition.

The company has a rich product system, leading research and development capabilities, supporting Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi 南京夜网论坛 and other customers. Under the high-end and international two-wheel drive, the company is expected to achieve the goal of tens of billions of dollars in revenue in 2021 and rank among the global parts giants.

The combination of KSS + Takada strong and strong, both wins safety approaching the world’s first global automotive passive safety market has a high concentration, CR4 exceeds 80%, resulting in the top four global market shares are Autoliv (40%), Takata (20%)), ZF Trina (17%), and KSS (7%).

After the merger and integration of Takata, Joyson ‘s safety market share is nearly 30%, and the gap between it and the world ‘s first is further narrowed. The original Takata and KSS have collaborations with customers, R & D, and procurement. The integration performance is continuously released, helping the company ‘s automotive safety profitability to improve.

Joyson Safety strives to increase its market share from the current 30% to 35% within three to five years. As a new car safety giant, it proposes to challenge Ottolive’s absolute hegemony level.

HMI + smart car linkage + E-mobility good track, build a cloud of doors, win in the future. The company faces the trend of automotive intelligence, electrification industry, in-depth layout of HMI, smart driving, smart car linkage, BMS and other fields.Navigation systems, connected cars, V2X, ADAS, battery management systems, etc. have entered the supporting system of high-end customers such as Volkswagen, BMW, Audi, and Porsche, and until H1 2019, the company’s electronic seat bay and smart car linkage business totaled 4.2 billion元订单,电动化 共获得订单131 ppm。
We expect that by 2020, the domestic automotive electronics market will exceed 900 billion U.S. dollars. As the company ‘s initial and most in-depth layout of automotive control electronics, the company will have a high-quality track and build a strong entry biology.Trillion market dividends.

Earnings forecast and investment recommendations We expect the company’s 2019-2021 earnings to be 0.

97 yuan, 1.

23 yuan, 1.

45 yuan.

Considering that the company’s market is stable and stable and its development prospects are great, it is given a price-earnings ratio of 20 times in 2020 and a reasonable target price of 24.

6 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: The global automotive industry is weaker than expected; the company’s automotive safety business integration is worse than expected; the company’s customer expansion and order acquisition are less than expected.

Shanxi Coking (600740) 2018 Annual Report Performance Comment: China Coal Huajin’s large investment income caused a 15% increase in profits

Shanxi Coking (600740) 2018 Annual Report Performance Comment: China Coal Huajin’s large investment income caused a 15% increase in profits

Long-term equity investment caused a sharp increase in the value of Shanxi Coking’s net profit by 1,567.

38% Shanxi Coking (600740) announced the 2018 annual report on the evening of the 15th, and the report stated that the company achieved operating income of 72.

29 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.

58%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies15.

33 ppm, an increase of 1567 per year.

38%; deduct non-net profit 12.

0.94 million yuan, an increase of 1152 in ten years.

37%; Yield 1.

21 yuan, the expected average return on net assets is 21.


The company achieved operating income in the fourth quarter.

26 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

44%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company2.

450,000 yuan, an increase of 514 in ten years.


A cash dividend of 2 yuan (including tax) is to be distributed for every 10 shares.

China Coal Huajin’s equity investment thickened the company’s performance report at one time, and the company purchased a total of 394 raw coal.

For the first time 64, the purchase price was 1216.

43 yuan-1300.

16 yuan; coal tar 18.

Initially, the purchase price was 3065-4038 yuan;都市夜网 crude benzene 7.

16 For the first time, the purchase price is between 4294 yuan and 5592 yuan.

In terms of different products, the production of coke (wet basis) was 300.

66, +7.

38%, sales of coke 299.

68 digits, +5.

93%; production of methanol 19.

03,, +24.

54% sold methanol 19.

28 ounces.

Due to the company’s routine production shutdown and maintenance, the production of carbon black, tar, crude benzene and other products decreased.

Report that the core company produces carbon black 5.

57 baseline, -15.

48%, selling carbon black 5.

68 for the first time; processed anhydrous tar 25.

83 ,, -14.

33%; processed crude benzene 10.

34 ,, -5.48%.

The main products of the major companies reported rising and falling quality, with asphalt increasing by +4.

7%, industrial naphthalene +31.

15%, 南京桑拿网 carbon black +14.

49%, coking benzene-0.


Maintaining stable downstream demand is the main factor for the company’s operating income to maintain steady growth.

In addition, the company’s 18-year net profit surged 15 times each year, mainly because the company completed the acquisition of 49% equity of Shanxi Zhongmei Huajin Energy Co., Ltd. in 18 years, and realized investment income of 11 that year.

US $ 1.6 billion, significantly increasing the company’s performance. Excluding the large amount of non-operating income caused by China Coal Huajin’s equity investment income and adjustment of investment costs, the company still exceeded 80% of profit growth that year.

Reported that the company’s overall gross profit margin rose 2.

09pct to 11.

37%, the expense ratio increased by 1.

At 04pct, the net profit margin was significantly affected by the substantial returns brought by China Coal Huajin’s equity investment19.

26 points to 20.


The company’s acquisition of China Coal Huajin has significantly improved the company’s net profit level. Although the one-time shock effect dissipated in 19 years, there is still room for improvement in the long-term.

Investment Strategy Shanxi Coking, as the coke leader in Shanxi Province, has a complete coal coking industrial chain including coke, coal tar, benzene processing, and methanol.

The company has obvious geographical advantages. It is located in the main coking coal production area upstream, and has certain advantages in procurement. In the downstream Hebei steel province, the demand side has the advantage of near-water platforms.

With the recovery of downstream steel demand in the past two years, the price of coke has continued to rise. As a leader in the coke industry, the company has benefited significantly.

In the initial period, the company acquired 49% equity of China Coal Huajin, and the industrial chain extended upward. China Coal Huajin’s coking coal is of good quality and has a large profit space, which promotes the company’s profitability.

We are optimistic about the company as the leading part of the coke industry, high-quality coking coal assets in the future to improve the company’s profitability, and as the major state-owned enterprises in Shanxi Province in the future state reform expectations, we recommend that we pay attention.

Risk warning: policy risks, coal prices fall faster than expected

China Public Education (002607) 2019 Annual Results Preview Comment: Triple Growth Moat Continues to Assist in Performance Growth

China Public Education (002607) 2019 Annual Results Preview Comment: Triple Growth Moat Continues to Assist in Performance Growth

Description of the event Zhong Gong Education released the 2019 annual performance forecast to achieve net profit attributable to mothers.

20,000 yuan?

2 trillion, with an increase of 49.


86%, the growth rate of 53.


In the fourth quarter alone, net profit attributable to mothers was 7.

60,000 yuan?

600 million, an increase of 24.


80%, growth center 32.


Event commentary In terms of traditional main business, recruiting demand rebounded, the company combined teaching and research advantages, national channel layout advantages and efficient management advantages, responded to demand rebounds, achieved revenue, performance growth, and consolidated the industry’s leading scale.

Taking the teacher qualification exam as an example, the number of enrolled students in 2019 is 8.8 million, an increase of 35%. Among them, the number of enrollments in the first half of 2019 is 2.9 million, an increase of 42%, and the number of enrollments in the second half of 2019 is 5.9 million, an increase of 32%.

New business such as postgraduate entrance examination and IT development has progressed smoothly. The company actively invests in development, teacher recruitment and training, and construction of a one-stop learning base to cultivate new performance growth points for the company.

The postgraduate entrance enthusiasm continues, with 3.4 million applicants for postgraduate entrance examinations in 2019, an increase of 17%, and a record high in nearly 10 years.

Since 2019, the company has made larger-scale investments in new track-level strategic categories such as postgraduate research and IT, including research and development and the recruitment of teachers.

In terms of channels, while the directly operated stores are sinking, they are actively exploring the base model.

The Air Force, three quarterly reports show that the Zhonggong Group and its wholly-owned subsidiary Beijing Zhonggong on September 27, 2019 at a total price of 2.

2.8 billion successfully bid for 1,321 acres of land and ground objects in Jiyang County, Jinan City, Shandong Province, of which 1221 acres shot by Beijing Zhonggong will be used for the construction of vocational education comprehensive facilities such as one-stop learning bases, and 100 acres of Zhonggong Group will be used to build ZhonggongBooks intelligent warehouse headquarters.

Looking forward to 2020, the unified recruitment of civil servants and public institutions will grow steadily. In 2020, the number of recruits for the national examination will increase by 66% to 2.

40,000, with 143 reviewers.

70,000, the average competition ratio is 60: 1; the teacher sequence will maintain a rapid growth, and sinking and decentralized examination recruitment 深圳桑拿网 such as grassroots public services will gradually become a force for the development of the recruitment training market.

Zhonggong Education has been deeply cultivating the industry for more than 20 years, grasping the characteristics of decentralized industry needs, practicing internal skills, building a moat for research and development, channels and management, and promoting the sustainable high growth of the company’s performance.

It is estimated that the 2020-2021 results will be 2.5 billion and 3.4 billion, respectively, corresponding to the current expected PE of 43 and 32 times, maintain the buy rating.

Risk Warning: 1.

Major changes have taken place in vocational education and training industry policies; 2.

The business development and the development of the base model fell short of 天津夜网 expectations.

Fu Lichun-Fed rate cut inside and outside is expected to be placed once in 12 months

Fu Lichun: Inside and outside the Fed rate cut is expected to be placed once in 12 months

Northeast Securities Research Director Fu Lichun voted in July at the Fed’s interest rate meeting to decide: (1) Cut the federal funds rate by 25bp to the 杭州桑拿网 target range 2.

00% -2.

25%; (2) Change the general and excess reserve interest rates from 2.

35% down to 2.

10%; (3) At the same time announced that it will end the contraction in August.

Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed’s rate cut is not necessarily the beginning of the easing cycle.

  The interest rate cut in July was in line with expectations, the rate of interest rate cut was slightly lower than expected, and the direction of interest rate cut exceeded expectations.

The market previously expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in July by nearly 100%, and this rate cut was in line with expectations.

The magnitude of this rate cut and potential future rate cuts is slightly lower than the expectation of 25-50 basis points.

Regarding the direction of future interest rates, the Fed’s statement was ambiguous and exceeded market expectations.

  During this time, major global economies have cut interest rates one after another, and a wave of interest rate cuts seems to be taking shape.

According to the impact of global political and economic conditions on the economic outlook and the speed of growth, and also on the 南京桑拿论坛 basis of independence considerations, the Fed’s interest rate cuts are not smooth. Although a 25bp interest rate cut is expected in December, market expectations may be more important.

A new round of asset bubbles seems to be hitting at the same time.

  Will China follow the rate cut?

The interest rate corridor in the open market has actually been incorporated into the role of the benchmark interest rate.

It may be more important to rationalize the channel mechanism for bank deposit and loan interest rates to regulate the real economy.

After all, currency cannot be depreciated.

Huaxia Happiness (600340): A New Year for the Development of China Happiness

Huaxia Happiness (600340): A New Year for the Development of China Happiness

Core point of view: The performance commitment is completed, and the land revenue and profit contribution ability has been improved for 18 years. Huaxia Happiness’s operating income has reached 838 million US dollars, an annual increase of 40.

5%, attributable net profit of 117.

4.6 billion, an annual increase of 33.

8%, fulfilled performance commitment.

The increase in income was mainly due to the increase in real estate income, with settlement of 51.5 billion in 18 years, an annual increase of 78.

2%, settlement gross margin rose by 7.

5 units.

The profit rate of industrial services has declined, and the scale of first-level investment returns has remained basically stable.

The proportion of business outside Beijing has increased in an all-round way, and investment in industrial new cities has converged to achieve sales of 1,627 in 18 years.

6 ppm, an increase of 6 in ten years.

9%, of which real estate sales amounted to 131.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.

7%, general sales area of 1502, average price dropped to 8816 yuan / square meter, the proportion of sales area outside Beijing increased to 52%, of which Zhengzhou Central has performed extremely well.

During the year, the company’s industrial 都市夜网 new city business investment has significantly decreased, with the newly-added inventory of US $ 24.7 billion, a continuous decline of 70%, and the expansion of investment and operating cash scales down19.


Ping An’s shareholding and direct financing were smooth. Off-balance sheet financing was included in Ping An of China in 18 years and became the second largest shareholder of China Happiness with a total share capital of 25.


Ping An’s shareholding has improved the company’s direct financing and management capabilities. New direct financing increased by US $ 31 billion during the year, an annual increase of 66%.

Former China Resources Land Wu Xiangdong, Yu Jian became the company’s co-chairman and general manager.

The company’s EPS is expected to be 4 in 19 and 20 respectively.

93, 6.

03无锡桑拿网 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating Huaxia Happiness Industrial New City model copyright must be estimated to have an advantage of 11 to 16 years, the company’s average PEforward level is 10.

91x, in 2017, the Beijing area implemented a very strict purchase restriction policy. The company’s main layout of park sales was hindered, and the average PE was estimated to fall back to 7.

5 times.

A 19-year reasonable value grants 7 for proof of annual performance.

5x estimate, the reasonable price is 36.

99 yuan / share.

The risk reminder boom continues to decline, and sales rebates in purchase-restricted areas are not increased, affecting the company’s subsequent performance.

Jinfa Technology (600143) Annual Report Comments: Annual Report Exceeds Expectations 2019Q1 Cost Pressure Improves and Mitigates

Jinfa Technology (600143) Annual Report Comments: Annual Report Exceeds Expectations 2019Q1 Cost Pressure Improves and Mitigates
The annual report performance was lower than expected. Net profit in the first quarter of 2019 exceeded the increase by 21%. Jinfa Technology released the 2018 annual report, and the company achieved revenue of 253.2 trillion, an increase of 9 in ten years.4%, net profit 6.2.4 billion (net of non-net profit 3).31 ‰), an increase of 13.9% (after deducting non-depreciation, increase by 12.0%), lower than market expectations.Follow 27.1.7 billion of the latest equity calculation, the corresponding EPS is 0.23 yuan.Q4 achieved revenue of 67.700 million, an increase of 3 in ten years.3%, net profit -0.3 billion (2017Q4 was 0.9 billion), it 无锡夜网 is planned to pay 1 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.The company also announced that it achieved revenue of 59 in Q1 2019.0 million yuan, an increase of 6.5%, net profit 2.25 trillion, an increase of 21 a year.2%.We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.33/0.41/0.50 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. The rise in volume and price led to dynamic performance growth, and asset impairment losses dragged down Q4 performance in 2018.1 for the first time, higher than the added value 3.3%, of which 134 were sales of modified plastics.6 Initially, the average sales price rose by 6% to 1.330,000 yuan / ton; sales of fully biodegradable plastics / special engineering plastics / environmental protection and high performance recycled plastics increased by 91% / 61% / 69% to 2 respectively.6/0.8/10.8In the early stage, the average 南京夜网论坛 sales price changed by 2% /-3% / 12% every year, driving the company’s long-term performance growth.The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin for 2018 was 13.5%, a slight decrease of 0 previously.1pct, because the main raw material substitution system resin / engineering resin 18Q4 purchase average price increased by 14% / 14% from Q3, Q4 company’s gross profit decreased / decreased by 0 respectively.9pct / 0.6pct to 12.7%.In addition, the company accrued zero asset impairment losses in Q4.60 ppm (mainly bad debt losses), resulting in a single quarter of expected drag on performance. The cost rate during 2018 was generally stable.4%, basically flat for one year.Among them, the sales expense rate drops by 0 every year.4pct to 2.6%, the financial expense rate rose by 0 per second.5 points to 1.9%, mainly due to increased interest expenses and exchange losses.In addition, the company realized non-recurring benefits2.930,000 yuan, mainly for various government subsidies (3.4 billion). The cost pressure has eased, and Q1 2019 results have increased. In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s sales of modified plastics / fully biodegradable plastics / environmentally friendly and efficient recycled plastics increased by 3% / 48% / 27% to 29.3/0.95/2.With a budget of 91, the average sales price changes by -6% /-1% / 0% each year, and the company’s revenue slightly increases by 7% to $ 5.9 billion.Raw material substitution resins / polystyrene resins / engineering resins Q1 average purchase prices fell by 3% / 15% / 25%, the company’s cost pressure eased, and the overall gross profit rate fell by 0.4 points to 15.0%. The international layout is accelerating, and new material products are expected to gradually increase the company’s overseas business layout. The main structure of the new plant of the Indian blonde Pune base has been completed and is expected to be put into use in 2019H1.In terms of projects under construction, the company expects to produce 1 ton of semi-aromatic polyamide projects per year, and 3,000 tons of thermotropic liquid crystal polymer projects will be put into production in H1 in 2019. We expect that the subsequent volume of related products is expected to drive the company’s performance to continue to improve. Maintaining the “Buy” rating. Considering that the demand for automotive and other terminal equipment is weak and cost-side pressure is still alive, we lower the company’s 2019-2020 net profit forecast to 9.0/11.2 ppm (original value 10).5/13.100 million), with a net profit forecast of 13 in 2021.700 million, EPS is 0.33/0.41/0.50 yuan, the combined level of comparable companies (average 21 times PE in 2019), giving the company 21-24 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a target price of 6.93-7.92 yuan (original value 6).63-7.80 yuan), maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: New business development is less than expected; downstream demand expansion; raw material price risk.

Beijing New Building Materials (000786): The main business profit is gradually stabilizing. Signal internationalization + waterproof new business opens up growth space

Beijing New Building Materials (000786): The main business profit is gradually stabilizing. Signal internationalization + waterproof new business opens up growth space

Due to the impact of foreign exchange losses in the third quarter of 19th, deducting non-net profit basically stabilized the company’s 3Q19 revenue of 37.

800 million, +7 per year.

2%; net profit attributable to mother 6.

800 million, a year -8.

6%; net profit after deduction 7

400 million, only slightly reduced by 0 every year.

56%, in line with our expectations.

The company’s preliminary net profit attributable to the mother is 3 billion?

5 trillion range, corresponding to 4Q profit range 3.


600 million yuan.

Impact on net profit if added to US litigation (18.

4.6 billion), corresponding to the expected core performance21.


9.6 billion, sixth grade 6.

9% -13%.

  Comments: 1) 3Q19 gross profit margin is now stabilizing indicators.

The company’s 3Q gross profit margin was 36.

7%, 0% improvement per year / mo.

7ppt / 1.

2ppt, we expect mainly due to the gradual decline of the base in the same period last year and the further decline in the cost side.

2) Foreign exchange losses lead to increased settlement costs.

In the third quarter of 19, non-operating expenses increased by 52.87 million annually, mainly due to the increase in exchange losses in gypsum board cases and settlement fees.

3) The sales expense ratio increased significantly.

The company’s 3Q19 sales expense ratio growth rate / QoQ increased by 3 respectively.

5ppt / 2.

8ppt to 5.

9%, mainly due to the company’s 3Q transportation, advertising and exhibition costs increased.

4) Company 1?
Cash flow from operating activities in 3Q19 was -25% to 13.

US $ 8.6 billion was mainly due to additional increases in paid employee compensation and other operating-related cash.

  Development Trend The profitability of gypsum board is expected to stabilize at the bottom, and the leader continues to expand.

In August and September, the increase in the area of completed houses in a single month increased from -1% in July to 3% and 5%, respectively, and the positive signals of completion demand continued to strengthen.

Looking ahead to 4Q19, the cost-side waste paper price has dropped significantly, and we believe 无锡夜网 that the profitability of gypsum board is stabilizing at the bottom.

In terms of production capacity, the company is actively promoting the medium-term layout of 4 billion square meters in China (currently 2.7 billion square meters) and 1 billion square meters overseas.

  Promote the “one body and two wings” layout and open up the medium-term growth space.

The company plans to construct a gypsum board with a 20% waterproof and 20% coating “one body and two wings” layout, and proposes to achieve the top three in the country in three years.
In August this year, the company acquired a 70% stake in Shuyang Waterproof. Shuyang achieved a net profit of 69.11 million yuan in 18 years. Based on a conservative estimate of a 19% profit growth rate of 25%, this acquisition is expected to contribute to Beixin’s 19-year consolidated 青岛夜网 net profit.
20 million yuan.

  Earnings forecast and estimate As 2019E non-operating expenses are raised to reflect the increase in settlement fees, 2019e / 20eEPS30 is reduced.
7% / 0.

8% to 0.


54 yuan.

The current sustainable correspondence for 2019 / 20e is not EPS14.

3x / 12.

2x, maintain outperforming industry, considering the estimated transition to 2020e, maintain target price of 21.

8 yuan (corresponding to 2019 / 20e deduction non-EPS multiple is 16.

6x / 14.

1x), with 16% upside.

  Risk completion demand is sluggish and gypsum board prices are below expectations.

Great Wall Motor (601633): 18 years of gross profit margins under pressure for 19 years, waiting for F series and Euler volume

Great Wall Motor (601633): 18 years of gross profit margins under pressure for 19 years, waiting for F series and Euler volume
Investment Highlights The company released its 2018 annual report: total operating income for 2018 was 992.3 billion, a year -1.9%; net profit attributable to mother 52.100 million, previously +3.6%; deduct non-net profit 38.900 million, at least -9.5%; gross profit margin 17.5%, ten-year average 1.4pct; proposed cash dividend of RMB 0.29 yuan (including tax).Of which 18Q4 realized a total operating income of 325.9 billion, 13 from the previous decade.7%; net profit attributable to mother 12.8 billion, 40 from the previous decade.4%; deduct non-net profit 2.6 billion, the previous budget was 86%; gross margin was 14.0%, more than ten years.4pct. Gross profit margin decreased by 1 in the fourth quarter of 2018.1pc, non-recurring profit and loss crystal.Company Q4 gross profit margin 14.0%, bid 1pct month-on-month, add 5 again.4pct.The company’s Q4 old Haval car sales discount increased Qo3 (starting to reduce the price of the old Haval in September 18), while Q4’s new F series is in a climbing phase, the overall sales accounted for a relatively small, the company’s Q4 overall gross profit rate decreased from Q3.The company’s Q4 non-recurring gains and losses are mainly interest income from performance bonds and government subsidies.The company’s sales target for 2019 is 1.2 million units, an increase of more than 130,000 units. The main increase is expected to come from F series, Euler new energy, pickup trucks, while H series and WEY series are expected to be under pressure.With the high profitability of the F series and Euler’s heavy volume in 19 years, the company’s gross profit margin has been rising quarter by quarter in 19 years. In 2018, the company opened the parts system to optimize the geographical layout of production capacity.In 2018, the company will independently bring its own supporting parts system to the market.Among them, the competition in the 7DCT gearbox market is intensifying, and it is expected that the external supply will increase the company.In addition, in 2018, the company completed layouts in Yongchuan, Chongqing, Rizhao, Shandong and Pinghu, Zhejiang to improve 杭州桑拿 overall production capacity and optimize layout. It is expected that the company will return to its mother net profit in 2019-2021.1/56.4/59.700 million, maintaining the level of “prudent overweight”.Considering the improvement brought by the new products, we adjusted the company’s net profit attributable to its mother to 53 in 2019-2020.1/56.4, the first announcement of profit forecast for 2021 59.700 million, maintaining the level of “prudent overweight”. Risk warning: the industry’s growth rate is expanding rapidly; new car sales are lower than expected; cooperation with BMW is less than expected.

Shanghai Xiba (603200): Industrial water treatment is booming and civilian business grows steadily

Shanghai Xiba (603200): Industrial water treatment is booming and civilian business grows steadily

Event description The company released its 2018 annual report, and the company achieved operating income in 20184.

14 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.

27%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 0.

80 ppm, a 39-year increase of 39.

25%, reduce non-recurring profit and loss net profit 0.

62 ppm, an increase of 26 in ten years.


  Incident Review Industrial water treatment business has grown rapidly, while civilian business has grown steadily.

Benefiting from the prosperity of the steel and petrochemical industries, the company’s industrial water treatment business achieved operating income in 20182.

66 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.

44%, an increase of 30 from 2017.

34pct; industrial water treatment business revenue accounted for 64 of previous revenue.

32%, down 4 from 2017.

51 points.

Among them, the income from the petrochemical industry was zero.

850,000 yuan, an increase of 13 in ten years.

75%; Realize zero income for the automobile manufacturing industry.

84 ppm, an increase of 11 years.

16%; zero income for the steel and metallurgy industry.

82 ppm, an increase of 113 in ten years.

54%; realized zero income for the pulp and paper industry.

1.6 billion, down 17 a year.


In 2018, the company’s civilian 青岛夜网 business realized operating income1.

20,000 yuan, an increase of 8 in ten years.

52%, a decrease of 2% compared to 2017.


  The gross profit margin at the industrial end declined and the civilian end increased.

In 2018, the company’s gross profit margin was 38.

20%, down 4 each year.

12pct; 2018Q4 gross profit margin was 32.

62%, a decline of 9 per year.

68pct, down 6 from the previous month.

26 points.

In terms of different industries, the company’s industrial water treatment business gross margins have declined to varying degrees.

The gross profit margin for the petrochemical industry was 41.

84%, a decline of 4 per year.

55pct, with a gross profit margin of 42 for the automotive manufacturing industry.75%, a decline of 5 per year.

27pct, the gross profit margin for the steel metallurgy 苏州夜网论坛 industry is 21.

72%, a decline of 10 per year.

45pct; gross profit margin for the pulp and paper industry is 3.

95%, a decrease of 26 per year.

34 points.

However, the company’s civil business gross margin exceeded 8%.

27pct, reaching 49.


  Accounts receivable increased and operating cash flow turned negative.

In 2018, affected by the settlement of bills by customers in industries such as automobile manufacturing, iron and steel metallurgy, the amount of bills receivables and accounts receivable of the company increased to a total of 2 at the end of the period.

82 ppm, an increase of 40 in ten years.

30%, accounting for 30% of total assets at the end of the period.

52%, up 5 per year.

17 points.

At the same time, due to the commencement of the Hegang Leting EPC project, the advance payment increased by zero.

4.2 billion.

Under the comprehensive influence, the company’s operating net cash flow turned negative in 2018, which was -0.

1.6 billion.

  Investment suggestion We believe that the company has been ploughing industrial water treatment business for many years, and its customers are more sticky, and the contracted business volume has improved.

On this basis, the company has gradually expanded the mass-bonded EPC and BOT projects and has achieved certain results.

We expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 19-21.

59\1.99\2.29 yuan, corresponding to the company’s closing price of 37 on March 28.

85 yuan, PE for 19-21 is 25.

2\19.0\16.5. Covered for the first time, giving “overweight” rating.

  Risks indicate that the progress of the project is less than expected; the risk of customer churn;